Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 3.576802 3.897115 4.267085 4.735522 5.328221 6.077809 7.145467
2025-02-02 3.261003 3.688227 4.227031 4.991715 6.124173 7.915843 11.588567
2025-02-09 2.997644 3.461309 4.076532 5.014986 6.570787 9.561422 19.304796
2025-02-16 2.821878 3.309134 3.981345 5.068929 7.064813 11.801901 52.001252
2025-02-23 2.617579 3.090284 3.753767 4.856773 6.985199 12.688364 944.336032
2025-03-02 2.508416 2.989511 3.681536 4.878743 7.376541 15.719459 NaN
2025-03-09 2.408812 2.891644 3.599514 4.863922 7.684547 19.580803 NaN
2025-03-16 2.301022 2.773066 3.472346 4.743904 7.693935 22.370888 NaN
2025-03-23 2.255349 2.740646 3.475732 4.865930 8.400396 38.479106 NaN
2025-03-30 2.157322 2.624372 3.333898 4.682874 8.157195 41.016013 NaN
2025-04-06 2.064874 2.512065 3.191536 4.483762 7.814410 39.518262 NaN
2025-04-13 1.996469 2.432684 3.098320 4.374103 7.726395 46.052100 NaN
2025-04-20 1.973755 2.422594 3.121272 4.510672 8.531457 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.967086 2.436325 3.185293 4.748317 9.955720 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.927584 2.396857 3.154235 4.770073 10.550195 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.894890 2.366185 3.135971 4.818650 11.366339 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.832021 2.285321 3.023555 4.627625 10.737343 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.801485 2.254474 2.998977 4.647452 11.373518 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.768648 2.218537 2.962878 4.634079 11.829821 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.725760 2.165018 2.892037 4.525612 11.581055 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.712697 2.158627 2.906609 4.635891 13.057696 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 1.667163 2.098370 2.818812 4.470342 12.219543 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 1.621215 2.036548 2.726574 4.289483 11.261568 NaN NaN